老龄化世界对经济的影响在6月10日那一周, 2024, French markets were rocked by a government bond sell-off after a strong showing by the far-right National Rally party in the European Union election. With polls suggesting the National Rally party may win a plurality of seats in the upcoming French parliamentary election, investors feared a promised social spending program — including a reduction of the minimum retirement age from 64 to 60 — would further strain the already struggling French economy.1 相比之下, 2023年，法国将退休年龄从62岁提高到64岁, 旨在加强经济, 工人们走上街头抗议.2
The French conflict over the retirement age reflects a fundamental social and economic issue throughout the developed world. 简单地说, 世界人口正在老龄化, which means the percentage of workers in the population who can drive the economy and support old age pension and health-care programs is gradually diminishing.
美国.S. 社会保障计划就是一个很好的例子. 在1960年，有5个.1名工人为每个受益人支付该计划的费用. 到2024年，将有2个.7人，预计降至2人.3 by 2040. 因为人口结构的变化, Social Security no longer pays for itself and has been partially supported by trust fund reserves built up when there were more workers per beneficiary. 这些储量预计将在2033年耗尽, at which time program income would cover only 79% of scheduled benefits unless Congress takes action to increase funding.3
医疗保险面临着类似的挑战. 医院保险信托基金储备, which help pay for Medicare Part A inpatient and hospital care benefits, 预计将在2036年耗尽, at which time payroll taxes and other revenue will pay only 89% of costs. Part B medical benefits and Part D prescription drug coverage are automatically balanced through premiums and revenue from the federal government’s general fund, but they will require an increasingly larger share of the federal budget unless economic growth outpaces spending.4
寿命越长，孩子越少
The shift to an older population is driven by two demographic trends: people are living longer and having fewer children. 到2050年，世界上六分之一的人将达到或超过65岁.5 美国已经达到了这个水平, 到2022年，超过17%的人口年龄在65岁或以上, 预计到2050年将达到近23%.6 许多其他发达国家甚至更老. In 2022, the median age in the United States — the age at which half the population is older and half younger — was 38.9，是有记录以来最高的.7 到2021年（最新数据），这一数字为48.日本4人，46人.意大利8人，44人.德国9人，41人.6 .法国.8
The fertility rate — the average number of children born to each woman — has dropped throughout the world, 由于包括教育在内的各种因素, 获得避孕措施, 就业机会, 以及生活方式的选择. 在发达国家，生育率约为2%.1 is considered the replacement rate at which a country’s population remains stable. (在死亡率较高的发展中国家，这一比例略高.)自20世纪70年代以来，大多数发达国家的生育率一直低于更替水平, 因此，他们依靠移民来维持或增加人口.9 美国.S. 生育率是1.62 in 2023.10 尽管发展中国家的生育率较高，但也在下降. 基于初步数据, one academic study suggests that the global fertility rate may be near or below replacement for the first time in human history.11
全球养老金支出
Many advanced economies devote a large share of gross domestic product (GDP) to government spending on old age and survivor benefits — and the share is likely to grow as the population continues to age.
资料来源：经济合作与发展组织（OECD）, 2023年（2019年数据）, 包括非现金福利)
挑战与解决方案
Spending on programs for an aging population is already straining economies throughout the world, and the economic pressure will increase as populations continue to age. 负担不仅仅是项目的成本, but also the potential for lower production and tax revenue from a workforce that is smaller in proportion to the total population. 这可能会推高政府债务, 增加政府借贷, 随之而来的是对更少劳动力的竞争, 可能导致更高的通货膨胀.12
到目前为止, government programs to encourage couples to have more children have not had a significant impact, and there is no clear correlation between the fertility rate and child-care and housing costs, 学生债务, 就业, 宗教信仰, 或者当地有关避孕和堕胎的法律. This suggests that the decision to have fewer children is more deeply ingrained in fundamental lifestyle choices. 发达国家, 移民可能会继续提供更多的劳动力, but recent immigration to developed nations has tended to be unskilled workers.13
The funding gap for government pension programs such as Social Security can be addressed by a combination of solutions that may be politically unpopular but are unlikely to derail the broader economy: higher retirement ages, 工资税增加, 对较富裕的受益人进行经济状况调查.14 更大的问题是如何保持全球经济的增长. This may require increased worker productivity driven by new technologies and greater integration of older workers into the workforce.
U.S. 工人生产率以每年2%的速度增长.9% in the first quarter of 2024, well above the annual average since the end of World War II. 如果这种趋势继续下去, it could help balance some productivity lost as older people exit the workforce. Americans are already working longer — about one out of five of those age 65 and older were employed in 2024, 几乎是1985年的两倍.15 The long-term solution may require rethinking the traditional model of a career, with more opportunity for lifelong learning and late-life career development. Studies indicate that working longer may help prevent cognitive decline, but it also could help balance the macroeconomic effects of global aging.16
Projections are based on current conditions, subject to change, and may not come to pass.